The 2010 NBA Season has gotten under way, and the Atlanta Hawks are off to an impressive 5 – 0 start even though their victories have been over below average teams. The Hawks ended their season in disappointing fashion last year, getting swept by Orlando in the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Odds to Win the NBA Championship: As far as the odds to win the 2010-11 NBA Finals are concerned, the Atlanta Hawks can be found in the middle of the pack in the league. At +3,000 they are given shorter odds than over half of the league, but not anywhere close to any of the major challengers.
Eastern Conference Odds: Viewing the live NBA betting odds, the Hawks are marked down at +2,000 to win the Eastern Conference, just slightly better than their odds to win the championship. What does this mean? It means that neither is likely, but if the Hawks do find a way to win the conference, they have got a decent shot at take home the Finals.
Over/Under Win Projections: The Hawks’ over/under for victories is set at 46.5. Atlanta won 53 times last year. They are returning essentially the same players for this season. So why the expected strong slip in wins? The Hawks were seen as one of the luckiest squads in the NBA last season. They made it through the season without any of their star players missing much time and many analysts (myself included) feel that last season was as good as it is going to get for the Hawks with the roster they have.
Suggestion: I do think Atlanta will make the playoffs, but I don’t think they’ll get through the first or second round. Having said that, I’d urge staying away 
from betting them to win the conference or the championship. The oddsmakers correctly adjusted the Hawks’ expected season win total, making it challenging to make a suggestion. You’d be taking a gamble with the over 46.5 wins, but it’s in all likelihood the right pick. You’ll just have to count on Atlanta’s durability holding up.
Strengths: Over the last three years, Atlanta has been an above-average squad that didn’t get hurt. Joe Johnson is brilliant on both ends of the court. He’s not the kind of player that is going to score 50 in a game, but his ball handling skills, mid-range jumper, and effective defense makes him one of the Hawks’ greatest players. Power forward Josh Smith is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He scores, rebounds, and blocks shots well. Other starters, Jeff Teague, Marvin Williams, and Al Horford are solid role players, and the Hawk’s bench is one of the more gifted in the division.
Weaknesses: Atlanta does not use their good team speed on defense. They were one of the worst teams in the league in transition defense last year and unless they are able to make some significant alterations that is likely to continue.
Atlanta hasn’t had to deal with any hardship over the last couple of years. I would like to see how they’d do if Joe Johnson or Josh Smith went down for any large length of time. The Hawks seem to coast into the postseason, but they’ve looked flat and uninspired. It’s hard telling exactly what the cause of it is, but Atlanta appears to lack confidence in intense situations.
Predictions: The Hawks are still a good squad, it’s just hard to see them repeating their 2009-10 season. Excluding any significant injuries, the Hawks still make the playoffs rather easily. Just don’t expect them to advance past the second round.
I have the Hawks ending up in 3rd place in the Southeast. They’ll likely be looking up at Orlando and Miami, but should end up easily ahead of both Charlotte and Washington, and with enough victories to secure a spot in the postseason.
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