2010 – 2011 NBA Season Predictions: The Orlando Magic

Jack Jones December 24, 2010 0

The Orlando Magic are currently17 – 12, and coming off of a 123 – 101 victory over the San Antonio Spurs who came in boasting the NBA’s best record.  This is the first win for the new look Magic and it was an impressive one.  The Magic sent Rashard Lewis to Washington for Gilbert Arenas, and acquired Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson from Phoenix for Marcin Gortat and Vince Carter.  These changes needed to be made because the roster that they started the season with was not having good results, it was a bold move by Magic GM Otis Smith.

The Magic now feel that they have the firepower to play with the top teams in the Easter conference, and possibly compete for an NBA Championship.  With the new look the Magic still need to find another big body to play with Dwight Howard in the post since they traded all of their size away.  That is the only way they will be able to compete with a team like the Celtics who have so much size and depth along their front line.  The Magic and Celtics play on Christmas day for the first time this season in a match up that will showcase a potential playoff series, as the Magic have already split games with the Miami Heat this season.

Odds to Win the Finals: The Orlando Magic are one of the top five squads in the league and their betting odds to win the 2010-11 NBA Championship indicate that. At +1,000 (10 to 1) only the Heat (+170), Lakers (+300), and Celtics (+900) have shorter numbers. This translates into lines makers giving the Magic a 9% chance of winning a championship this season.

Odds to Win the East: According to the latest NBA odds, Orlando is one of the leading two teams most likely to win the East. At +450, this gives the Magic a estimated 18% probability of representing the East in the Finals.

Season Win Total: The Magic won 59 games last season, but lines makers list the Magics’ over/under for victories this year at 54.5. The cause for this difference is most likely due to Miami bringing LeBron James and Chris Bosh into the division. The good news is that the Magic are a near sure thing to reach the postseason. What they do when they get there will be the thing to watch.

Suggestion: At 10-1 to win the NBA Championship Orlando is worth a look. They don’t get the hype of Miami, LA, or Boston, but they could be the second best team in the league this season. You don’t get the same value on Orlando with their betting odds to win the conference, but I don’t think it would be a horrible wager to get them at 4.5-1. As for their season win total, I’m leaning toward the “over” 54.5 wins. They’ve won 59 times for two straight years and it’s hard to see where a 4-5 game downturn would come from.

Strengths: Defense and perimeter shooting are both significant pluses for the Magic. Dwight Howard is the most daunting defender in the NBA. He literally shuts down the paint for the opposition, liberating the rest of his teammates to play tight on the perimeter.

Howard’s presence in the lane on the offensive side also opens up a lot of 3-point opportunities for Orlando. No team shot from beyond the 3-point line with more frequency last season and they haven’t made any significant moves that would make me think they won’t be prosperous at it again this season.

Weaknesses: The major fear the Magic presented last season in the postseason is an inability to create shots, something that’s likely to continue to be an issue this season. They’ll take shots from outside or feed it to Howard, but if Howard is shut-down offensively (as he was against the Celtics), the Magic have the players to penetrate and create points or scoring chances on their own.  With the moves that they just made this weakness may have changed because they now have at least two players who can create their own shot without coming off of screens.  The primary weakness for this team now is depth on the front line, and the size of Jameer Nelson when facing bigger and stronger point guards, it is still up in the air, but Van Gundy seems to want Gilbert Arenas to come off of the bench.

Predictions: The Magic didn’t do a lot in the off season because they didn’t need to. They were where they needed to be last year and should contend for the Eastern Conference crown again this season. Miami is seen as the favorite in the division, but Orlando does have Dwight Howard, and I’ll be interested to see how the “Big Three” play against an elite post player surrounded by a strong supporting cast.

I’m big on the Orlando Magic this year, but I have to put them at 2nd place in the Southeast Division. The Heat look too good. What I do expect is for the Magic to easily reach the postseason and make another deep run.

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