The Miami heat are currently on a double digit win streak and have risen to the second best record in the Eastern Conference after a bit of a slow start. All of the tension and drama that allegedly existed between the three superstars and coach Erik Spoelstra has all but disappeared, winning cures a lot of things it seems.
Odds to Win NBA Title: The Miami Heat are the overwhelming favorites to win the NBA Championship this season, that is, viewing the latest odds to win the 2010-11 championship at various sportsbooks. Miami is numbered at +170, which means that oddsmakers give the Heat a 37% chance of winning the title, impressive seeing there are 29 other franchises in the NBA and that the next best selection, the LA Lakers, are numbered at +300, which transforms into a 25% chance of winning. All of this when about all of the current players haven’t played a regular season contest together!
Eastern Conference Odds: Checking the current NBA odds, the Heat are (of course) favored to win the East at -175. They are the only team in the East that you would have to actually lay more cash than you stood to win on a futures bet. Rendered into a percentage, linesmakers are basically saying that Miami has a 64% chance of representing the East in the championship this season. Those are some stunning expectations.
Season Win Projections: Weighing all of the hype surrounding this squad breaking the all-time record for regular season wins (72 by the Chicago Bulls), the NBA odds show their under/over for regular season wins this year at a rather modest 64.5, the steepest set in the league and 8 more victories than the next highest total (Lakers at 56.5).
My Take: Expectations are high for Miami, which means there isn’t going to be a lot of value in gambling on them to win the championship or the Eastern Conference. I’d suggest laying off merely because there are too many unknowns. As for the win total, the “over” is attractive enough for me to give it a shot. Between 65-70 wins seems fairly likely for the Heat this year.
Strengths: LeBron James. Dwyane Wade. Chris Bosh. These are three premiere players, all in their prime. All three are great scorers and outstanding defenders. I think James will be even better in a function that doesn’t have him as the only option for offense. A lot has been talked about a slip in production for these three since there is “only one ball to go around”, but I don’t see it in the same light. The rest of this squad is loaded with role players that don’t (or at least shouldn’t) expect to have the ball much, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bosh and Wade both put up corresponding scoring marks, while James still has a lot of points, but a big boost in assists.
Weaknesses: First, the high expectations for this team comes at a price. You get the impression that if Miami doesn’t surpass 70 games and win a title each season for the following 5 seasons, they’ve bombed. That’s a difficult spot to be in. They’ll need to focus on this year just to see if this meeting of three great players can actually work.
On the court the deepest issue for the Heat has to be at the five. They are under-sized and really do not have a good pick offensively at center. For the regular season, I think they can overcome this, but could run into troubles in the playoffs when they have to play consecutive games against a dominant big man like Dwight Howard.
Projections: Miami will be very, very good. They aren’t being hyped without good grounds. This will be an explosive squad and one that certainly has the talent to win against any other team in the NBA on any given night. The key will be how they deal with the match ups with their role players.
I’m marking down the Heat to be 1st in the Southeast Division and to win the Eastern Conference. The Magic are in all likelihood their biggest threat to winning the East, but in the end their three superstars beats 1 superstar for Orlando, even if it is at a down position for the Heat. If they do make the Finals, they’ll likely face the Lakers, a team that creates even more match up troubles for them. When push comes to shove, I’d have to take the more experienced Lakers in that situation. Whatever happens, it will be fun to watch it all unfold.
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