Looking at the AFC Championship Game, there is a great deal to like about both the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Naturally, they are the two teams left standing in the AFC, which says a great deal about both teams. There are also several similarities between both clubs.
Both have quarterbacks playing well heading into Sunday’s tilt. Both have outstanding defensive units. Both have good young head coaches.
Well, you get the idea. The Steelers and Jets are very close to mirror images of each other. They are both going to try to advance to the Super Bowl by doing the same things: running the ball, taking care of the football, and 
putting the game on the shoulders of their defenses.
The Jets are no strangers to Heinz Field, having won there in Week 15 when it looked like their season was unraveling. That outcome though should have no impact on this week’s game. The biggest reason is that the Steelers will have Troy Polamalu floating around in the secondary.
Polamalu didn’t play in the regular season matchup. The Steelers defense is a different unit with him in the lineup.
Both teams can win this game. Who has the edge though?
Steelers Offense vs. Jets Defense
Points per game (Regular Season Stats): Steelers- 23.4 ppg. (12th in NFL), Jets 19.0 ppg. (6th)
Rushing: Steelers- 120.3 yards per game (11th), Jets 90.9 (3rd)
Passing: Steelers- 243.1 (14th), Jets 200.6 (6th)
The Jets defense is playing as well as any particular unit still in the NFL Playoffs. The Green Bay Packers offense is a close second. In back to back weeks, Rex Ryan’s unit solved Peyton Manning and made Tom Brady look like a rookie. That alone is a feat in itself. Success for the Jets comes down to two things- game planning and execution.
Ryan will have something up his sleeve for Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense. You can count on it.
Looking at the Steelers offense, as long as Roethlisberger has the ball in his hands, Pittsburgh has a chance to come out on top. The big play might not be there because of the Jets talented secondary, but look for Roethlisberger to take his shots anyway.
Key Matchup
Steelers Offensive Line vs. Jets Front Seven
To say the Steelers offensive line isn’t very good is a huge understatement. They are banged up, but they aren’t a very good unit if healthy. Expect Roethlisberger to be under a ton of pressure. Pittsburgh’s line has to give him time. If they do, the Steelers win.
The Jets will likely get to him easy enough, but bringing him down is another thing. If the Jets make life miserable for Big Ben, they likely will be heading to Dallas.
Edge: Jets Front Seven
Jets Offense vs. Steelers Defense
Points per game: Jets 22.9 (14th), Steelers 14.5 (1st)
Rushing: Jets 148.4 (4th), Steelers 62.8 (1st)
Passing: Jets 213.8 (23rd), Steelers 214.1 (12th)
Offensively for the Jets, quarterback Mark Sanchez is playing very well and is capable of going into Pittsburgh and leaving with a win. If the Jets give him the ball and ask him to win it by himself, they could be in trouble.
My only knock on Sanchez coming into this season was that I wanted to see him bring the Jets from behind and win games. He’s done that this season. I also needed to see Sanchez play well when nothing else was working for the Jets. He’s done that as well.
While the Steelers have the huge edge when it comes down to the signal callers, Sanchez isn’t a slouch. His numbers likely will never jump off the page, but he’s a winner.
The Jets will look to control this game on the ground. It won’t be easy, but they will stick to the ground game. The New York offensive line is very good and they will have to be on Sunday.
When Sanchez does need to put the ball up, he’s got a wealth of weapons to throw to. Tight end Dustin Keller is a mismatch for the Steelers defense and could play a big role.
Then there is Santonio Holmes. Holmes has quietly become the best big play receiver in the game. If you need a big play at a big time in a game, no receiver in the NFL has had the impact that Holmes has had the past three seasons (especially 2010-11).
Steelers defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau will have something special dialed up for Sanchez. The Pittsburgh game plan will be the same as always. They will focus on shutting down the Jets ground game, force third and long situations and then come after Sanchez.
If the Jets have a chance here, Sanchez has to play a near perfect game. He has it in him, but it will be tough.
Key Matchup
Mark Sanchez vs. Troy Polamalu
As mentioned, Polamalu didn’t play in the Jets Week 15 victory against the Steelers. That’s big because no one player is as important to their defensive unit as Polamalu is to the Steelers.
Sanchez must locate Polamalu on every play. If you lose sight of him for just one play, Troy can change the game. Polamalu is that much of a game changer.
Just ask Joe Flacco.
Edge: Troy Polamalu
Special Teams
The Steelers played one bad game on special teams this season. It was Week 15 against the Jets. Brad Smith (who likely will play after missing last week) returned the opening kickoff for a score and it had an impact on the final result.
Everything else is practically a wash between the teams. We’ve seen the Steelers special teams have complete meltdowns on this stage before. It would be a shame if they cost them this one.
Edge: New York Jets
Coaching
Some feel that Jets head coach Rex Ryan likes to talk just to hear himself speak. Nothing could be further from the truth. Ryan takes the bullet so his players don’t have to. You have to admire a guy like that.
Ryan gets the most out of his players and knows what buttons to push at what times. He said at the beginning of the season the Jets would be in the Super Bowl and now they are one win away. If the Jets win, he looks great. 
Yet if they lose, the media will be coming after him, not ripping a hole through Sanchez. Ryan wouldn’t have it any other way.
Mike Tomlin on the other hand is a little quieter, but he lets his players do the talking on the field.
There is no right answer to who’s the better coach. There is no proper way to handle things. What it comes down to is that if you are winning games, then you are doing things the right way.
Tomlin has a ring, although many will tell you he did that with Bill Cowher’s team. Ryan is looking for his first.
Win or lose, no coach in the NFL is doing a better job than Ryan.
Edge: Rex Ryan (by a foot).
Overview
The Steelers will win if……..
They take care of the football and move the chains. Roethlisberger hasn’t thrown a pick in what seems like eternity. Sunday would be an awful time to end that streak. If the Steelers turn the ball over in the first half the way they did last week against Baltimore, they likely will see their season come to an end.
Pittsburgh doesn’t necessarily need the big play, although they will take a couple. If Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie take away the deep ball, the Steelers can still have success underneath.
They can win this game going 5-6 yards at a time. Rashard Mendenhall, Heath Miller, Hines Ward, and the rest of the Steelers supporting cast can make the difference.
The Jets will win if……
They make the big play. A special teams or defensive touchdown would be nice. Sanchez has to take care of the football when his number is called. If a big play is there to Holmes, Braylon Edwards, or Jerricho Cotchery, Sanchez can’t miss it.
The stage won’t be too big for Sanchez, but the Jets can’t afford for him to take a half of football to get into a groove. By then, it could be too late.
Matchup that could decide the winner……
Rex Ryan vs. Dick Lebeau
This will be a chess game between the two men calling the defensive plays. Both men have been known to dial up the perfect call for just the right time in the game. This game could come down to a blitzing corner at the perfect time. Just something extra to keep an eye on.
Prediction
I’m starting to like the Jets chances more by the day. However, as I’ve said before, if I have one game to win I’m giving the ball to Roethlisberger. Looking at all the numbers and all the intangibles, it still comes down to the fact that I trust Roethlisberger in a close game more than I trust any quarterback in the league. If it’s close and it likely will be, I like my chances with Big Ben.
Steelers 24 Jets 20
