On paper, the Super Bowl XLV matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers breaks down to be a great Super Bowl matchup. Sunday’s game has a bit of everything. It’s a matchup of two of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL in Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger and the Packers Aaron Rodgers. It also features two of the premier defensive players in the league in the Steelers Troy Polamalu and Green Bay’s Clay Matthews. Both teams can score as well as they can stop the opposition from scoring. If you’re looking for a glaring statistical weakness that gives one of the teams a decisive edge, keep looking because you likely won’t find it. Everything points to this being a close game. Anything can happen under the bright lights and the big stage of the Super Bowl, but this likely could stay close throughout.
Who has the edge? Let’s take a look.
Steelers Offense vs. Packers Defense:
Regular Season Rankings:
Points per game: Steelers 23.4 (12th); Packers 15.0 (2nd)
Rushing: Steelers 120.3 (11th); Packers 114.9 (17th)
Passing: Steelers 243.1 (14th); Packers 194.2 (5th)
Overall Rankings: Steelers 14th; Packers 5th.
While Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be the focus of the Packers attention, the Steelers best shot at winning this game could be on the ground. Expect Rashard Mendenhall to play a major factor. Run the ball, 
avoid third and long situations and take care of the football and the Steelers will be hoisting a seventh Lombardi Trophy. Easier said than done. Running won’t be easy, but the Steelers have to do it. Rookie center Maurkice Pouncey has officially been ruled out of the game, so his backup Doug Legursky must step in and to a quality job. The Steelers offense has been much maligned, but has got the job done. They will have to on Sunday for the Steelers to have a chance.
The Packers have play makers everywhere on the defensive side of the ball. Legursky will have his hands full with B.J. Raji. Raji is a great run stopper and the Steelers will have to get him blocked. Pouncey has the ability to get to the linebackers as well. Legursky will have to step in and do the same. Allowing Matthews, A.J. Hawk and the rest of the Packers linebacking core to roam freely and make plays is a recipe for defeat. Green Bay wants to make the Steelers one dimensional. If they do, they likely win the game. If Pittsburgh falls behind early and is forced to throw it a lot, give a huge edge to the Packers.
Led by Charles Woodson and Traman Williams, the Green Bay secondary is one of the best in the league. They are difficult to throw on. They make a ton of plays and can put up six points just as easy as the Packers offense can. Roethlisberger has to take his shots though and will. He will likely be under pressure, which is nothing new for Big Ben. If the game stays close and the Steelers stay out of predictable passing situations, expect Roethlisberger to make his share of big plays.
Overall Edge: Packers Defense
Key Matchup 1: Doug Legursky vs. B.J. Raji
As mentioned before, Raji can be a game changer. Legursky must be up for the challenge. This isn’t just another game, even though the players will tell you it is. This is the biggest game, on the biggest stage that Legursky has ever played. Controlling Raji is step one for the Steelers.
Edge: Raji
Key Matchup 2: Steelers secondary receivers vs. Packers cover guys.
Mike Wallace and Hines Ward are Roethlisberger’s favorite targets. Getting them the ball could be a difficult task against Woodson and Williams. For the Steelers to move the chains and keep Rodgers and the Packers offense off the field, the Steelers other targets must make plays.
That means Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Heath Miller could become a big part of this game. Packers corner Sam Shields is also having a tremendous season, but the younger Steelers wide outs are playing with confidence. The big stage shouldn’t be too much for them.
Roethlisberger has no problem spreading the ball around so each guy likely will have the opportunity to make plays. The big edge goes to Miller. If the Steelers can keep the Packers pass rush of Big Ben, Miller becomes a huge part of the passing game; especially in the red zone.
Edge: Steelers secondary receivers
Packers Offense vs. Steelers Defense:
Regular Season Rankings:
Points per game: Packers 24.3 (10th); Steelers 14.5 (1st)
Rushing: Packers 100.4 (24th); Steelers 62.8 (1st)
Passing: Packers 272.2 (5th); Steelers 214.1 (12th)
Overall rankings: Packers 9th; Steelers 2nd
Rodgers has made the cheese head faithful quickly forget about that guy who was under center before him. On talent alone, Rodgers could be the best player on the field. He can’t do it by himself though. Despite the late season emergence of Packers running back James Starks, running against the Steelers defense could be next to impossible. The Steelers can quickly make the Packers one dimensional; however; the Packers passing game against the Steelers secondary gives Green Bay a decisive advantage. Even if they have to throw it on nearly every down, the Packers can have success that way.
James Jones and Jordy Nelson going against Anthony Madison and William Gay is not good news for the Steelers. Pittsburgh on the other hand has to make plays with pressure. LaMarr Woodley has a sack in six consecutive postseason games. Woodley, along with James Harrison can make it a long day for Rodgers rushing from the outside. Naturally the Packers must pay attention to the Steelers linebackers, along with safety Polamalu. It’s the unheralded guys on the Steelers defense that could make an impact.
Need an unsung hero for the Steelers? Look no further than Ziggy Hood, who has done a whale of a job filling in for Aaron Smith. Smith saw his comeback attempt halted as he was ruled out for Sunday. Hood, along with defensive end Brett Kiesel could be a big part of the game.
Overall edge: Steelers Defense
Key Matchup 1: Aaron Rodgers vs. Troy Polamalu:
Rodgers must locate Polamalu on every play. Fail to do so just one time and the game can change in an instant. That’s the type of impact Polamalu brings to the table. The game plan of using Polamalu must be better for the Steelers though. Thus far in the post-season, Polamalu has primarily played a center field position. If he does that 80 percent of the time against the Packers, he won’t be effective and Rodgers will pick the Steelers apart.
Here’s to thinking Steelers defensive coordinator gets more aggressive with Polamalu and allows him to be the playmaker he is. Regardless, Rodgers should have success staying away from Polamalu and with the Steelers lack of quality corners, the Packers signal caller could have a huge day.
Edge: Rodgers
Key Matchup 2: James Starks vs. Steelers Front Seven:
While the Packers likely won’t have much success running the football, they have to find a way to get some production. If Rodgers is forced to throw too much, he likely could become a sitting duck for the Steelers pass rush. If Green Bay somehow gets decent production on the ground, they become very dangerous offensively.
Again, easier said than done.
Edge: Steelers Front Seven
Special Teams:
The Packers have very good specialists and they cover kicks very well. Field position becomes crucial in a game that looks to be close on paper. If the game comes down to a kick or a punt, I’d take my chances with the Packers guys.
Edge: Packers
Prediction:
There are so many intangibles in this game. There are matchups at every position that are crucial. All the way from the two quarterbacks, down to the chess game between two of the greatest defensive coordinators of all 
time in Pittsburgh’s Dick Lebeau and Green Bay’s Dom Capers.
On the air, I predicted before the season began that the Packers would win the Super Bowl and I haven’t wavered from that all season. However, I do think experience in the Super Bowl can be a factor and the Steelers have it. I also can’t ignore Roethlisberger’s clutch factor.
The Packers haven’t trailed by more than seven points in a game at any time this season. This game will be close and Roethlisberger will get the ball late and he will do what he always does, lead the Steelers down the field for a win.
What will make it even sweeter for Steelers fans is when Roger Goodell has to hand the Super Bowl MVP Trophy to the one guy in the league that he doesn’t want to. Goodell handing Roethlisberger that trophy would indeed be poetic justice for Steelers nation.
Prediction – Steelers 24 – Packers 20
